Scenario and Sensitivity Review
Scenario and Sensitivity Review helps the founder or programme team critically review which assumptions move runway, revenue, cash and survival outcomes. Within Business Model, Pricing & Commercial Design, it turns a broad or uncertain area of the venture into a concrete Bertie work product that can be reviewed, improved and reused. The task is intentionally discrete: it should produce a specific artefact, decision, evidence item or risk signal rather than general learning notes.
Critically test the quality, consistency and readiness of Scenario and Sensitivity Review. The objective is to remove ambiguity around which assumptions move runway, revenue, cash and survival outcomes, give the founder a decision-ready output, and make it clear whether the venture should progress, repeat the task with stronger evidence, escalate to expert support, or move into a linked stage.
Bertie or a programme manager assigns Scenario and Sensitivity Review when the venture needs a decision-ready output for this group. Typical triggers include group-gate reviews, evidence gaps identified by the co-pilot or founder request.
customer evidence; product scope; market assumptions; pricing or revenue hypotheses; known cost assumptions; existing artefact to review; specific context for which assumptions move runway, revenue, cash and survival outcomes.
Gather all current financial models, pricing logic, unit economics, and supporting customer evidence into a consolidated review deck. Pull together existing cash flow forecasts, runway projections, and baseline revenue assumptions to create a single source of truth.
ObjectiveCompleting this action consolidates all existing financial drivers and commercial assumptions into a single reviewable location. It ensures the scenario analysis is built on documented baseline figures rather than fragmented or outdated spreadsheets.
What's expectedThe founder must present a fully populated base-case financial model alongside a logged inventory of supporting evidence for every primary line item. This must include explicit starting cash balances, burn rate schedules, and documented conversion rates.
Open action arrow_forwardConsultant stress-test · 5 questions- 1.What specific evidence underpins the baseline revenue conversion rates included in this base case?
- 2.How recently were the cost-of-acquisition assumptions validated against actual market tests?
- 3.Which line items in this financial model rely on historical performance versus unvalidated founder hypotheses?
- 4.Are all current contract terms, payment velocity expectations, and supplier payment cycles accurately reflected in the opening cash position?
- 5.Where is the explicit boundary between known operational overheads and variable growth expenditure in this dataset?
- A data-room asset titled Scenario and Sensitivity Review
- A review note with a verdict, evidence gaps, risks, recommended corrections and a clear continue / repeat / escalate decision
- It should update the venture DNA with specific evidence or decisions about which assumptions move runway, revenue, cash and survival outcomes, create a visible milestone in the founder journey, and generate one or more recommended next tasks
Bertie co-pilot checks the commercial logic against evidence, financial assumptions and pricing signals, runs consistency checks, and recommends funding or GTM tasks. For this task, it should focus on which assumptions move runway, revenue, cash and survival outcomes, prompt the founder for missing inputs, draft or improve the output, flag weak assumptions, and record the result back into the relevant data-room section.
A mentor or evaluator can review the output at the group gate. Programme managers can require an advisor checkpoint before Bertie moves the venture forward.